'Washington has to thread a very difficult needle' on Niger response, experts say

The United States and its Western allies are faced with a difficult conundrum as they navigate potential responses to the military takeover in Niger if democratic rule is not restored.

Under US law, if the US State Department formally classifies that takeover as a coup, it would require the US to cut foreign and military assistance to the Nigerien government, which could have serious consequences for the fight against terrorism and stability in the region.

The Biden administration has not yet made such a determination, with State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel saying Thursday that "this continues to be an evolving situation and it is quite too soon to characterize the nature of these ongoing developments."

US officials stress that they are focused on diplomatic efforts to restore democratic rule, but on Friday, John Kirby of the National Security Council warned that a military takeover would imperil US assistance to Niger.

Experts told CNN that punitive measures could push Niger toward Russian mercenary groups like Wagner and away from its partners in the West. It is also likely that the Wagner group, which has a significant presence in Africa, and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, may seek to exploit the situation for their own benefit. US officials have said there are no indications that the organization was involved in the military takeover.

"Washington has to thread a very difficult needle right now, because we have real hard security interests in Niger," said Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Niger has become a point of stability in the Sahel region of Africa, which faces a significant fight against terrorists and Islamist extremists, and is a key partner to the US, serving as a base for hundreds of US troops to assist with counterterrorism missions. Niger's neighbors including Mali and Burkina Faso have experienced coups of their own in recent years.