‘Back and ready’: Chris Minns leads Labor to power after 12 years in opposition at historic 2023 NSW election

Labor is on track to form majority government in New South Wales after 12 years in opposition, with the party leader, 43-year-old former firefighter and political staffer Chris Minns, declaring the party is "back and ready to govern in this great state".

As counting ended on Saturday night, Labor had picked up at least nine seats, enough to govern in majority and a better-than-expected result for the party after big swings in many previously safe Coalition seats.

The result means Minns will become the first Labor leader to win government from opposition in NSW for almost three decades and sees the Coalition relegated to the opposition benches in every parliament on mainland Australia.

The election had been fought by Labor on a few key issues including a promise to end the sale of public assets, removing the controversial public sector wages cap and for investments in health and education.

In a late-night speech delivered to a packed room of party faithful in a function room in the beachside suburb of Brighton-Le-Sands, in Minns' seat of Kogarah in Sydney's south, he said the election was "a decisive vote against privatisation".

"We know the challenges are huge, the responsibilities are awesome but NSW Labor is back and ready to govern in this great state of NSW," he said.

"We started effectively two years ago with a promise to the people of NSW that we would run an election campaign asking people to vote a positive vote for NSW Labor and not just a negative vote against the government.

For the Coalition, the result marks a devastating blow. Dominic Perrottet had sought to reset the government after becoming premier in late 2021 after former premier Gladys Berejiklian's resignation, and won plaudits for his push to reform poker machines in the state.

But the baggage of 12 years in government proved too much to overcome. Speaking on Saturday night, former Liberal prime minister John Howard paid tribute to Perrottet for running an "heroic" campaign.

"He put forward ideas. He was bold," Howard said, saying the outgoing premier's stance on problem gambling - something he called a "social evil" - was "admirable".

In his concession speech, Perrottet announced he would stand down as the state's Liberal party leader while hailing the three-term Coalition government's record.

"It is a time to reflect. It is a time to rethink and ultimately to renew. To renew as leader of the parliamentary Liberal party, I take full responsibility for the loss this evening," he said.

"But we as a party, we as a government should be very proud of what we have achieved together.

"Make no mistake, we've made history of being in government for the longest time since our party was formed. And our government has achieved so much in so many ways. We've kept NSW strong, free and fair."

In their speeches, both leaders paid tribute to one another for a campaign which had largely avoided going negative.

Labor had been keen to play the expectation management game earlier on Saturday, pointing out that despite polls favouring the party it had a narrow path to victory. It needed nine seats to form a majority, with only four on margins of less than 5%.

It had not held Goulburn - held on 3.1% - since 1965, and by the end of counting on Saturday night it remained too close to call.

But it didn't matter. Labor gains in regional seats of South Coast and Monaro - both seats previously held by the Coalition on safe margins - as well as in Sydney's west in Parramatta, Riverstone, Penrith, East Hills, Ryde and Camden - meant it was in a position to form government.

Labor also remained in the hunt for the seat of Balmain, held by the Greens since 2011.

The Liberal party also lost Wakehurst and Berejiklian's former seat of Willoughby to independents Michael Regan and Larissa Penn.

It is only the third time Labor has won government from opposition in NSW - most recently in 1995, when Bob Carr won with a one-seat margin.

Labor's path to victory relied on a narrow message focused on the Coalition's record on privatisation, scrapping its controversial public sector wages cap and promises to lift spending on health and education infrastructure.

But the party was criticised for refusing to back Perrottet's push on gambling reform, instead offering only a trial of the mandatory cashless gaming systems on 500 poker machines across the state.

Their victory will mark a blow for anti-gambling advocates, who had hailed Perrottet's push on the issue as a generational reform in the pokies capital of Australia.